As the world accelerates towards cleaner mobility, the race to adopt New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) is gaining momentum. From Norway’s dominance in electric cars to China’s vast charging networks – the shift away from fossil fuels is reshaping the global transport landscape.
Today, NEVs account for roughly 14% of global car sales, driven by stricter environmental regulations, rapid technological innovation and growing consumer awareness.
Yet this transition is far from equal. In developing regions such as South Africa, high vehicle costs, unreliable electricity supply and dependence on informal transport systems continue to slow progress.
Now, researchers at the University of Cape Town (UCT) are stepping in to chart a more locally grounded path forward – one that brings together global insights, continental trends and provincial realities.
Over the past 18 months, a team from UCT’s Centre for Transport Studies (CfTS) has been working to understand what a realistic transition to NEVs could look like in the Western Cape. Their research focuses on the province’s transport systems, infrastructure constraints and energy realities.
“The question is not just what works globally, but what works here.”
Speaking at the NEV workshop at the UCT Graduate School of Business on 16 April, Professor Marianne Vanderschuren of CfTS said the project aims to develop a practical “blueprint” for change.
“The question is not just what works globally, but what works here,” she said.
The study combines strategic modelling with detailed, real-world analysis, examining how different types of NEVs – not just electric cars – can be integrated into passenger and freight systems.
Modelling a complex future
A central component of this work is led by Dr Tanya Lane-Visser and Professor Vanderschuren, whose modelling provides the analytical backbone of the project.
“The aim is to investigate and determine the ideal mix of propulsion technologies that the Western Cape should aspire to,” she explained. Crucially, this means avoiding a narrow technological focus. “We explicitly wanted to avoid just looking at electric vehicles … and to try and keep it open-ended.”
Their research highlights a key reality: the transition will not be linear or uniform. “Most likely there will not be one dominant replacement alternative for internal combustion engines,” she told stakeholders from academia, government and the private sector. “Most likely there will be a combination of new and old technologies for a very long time.”
“We can calibrate our models to have a Western Cape fuel economy rating instead of a general international condition.”
To inform this, Dr Lane-Visser and the team conducted a comprehensive review of global technologies across multiple transport modes – from cars and buses to freight, rail, maritime and aviation – assessing not only their benefits but also their limitations, from affordability and infrastructure demands to environmental trade-offs.
The next step has been to localise these insights. “The idea was to contextualise the international literature review findings to a Western Cape context,” she said.
This has led to the development of a detailed origin–destination network for the province, allowing researchers to model how vehicles actually move across the region. A key innovation is the creation of a “Western Cape adjustment factor” that accounts for local conditions such as altitude, wind, temperature and road gradients.
“We can calibrate our models to have a Western Cape fuel economy rating instead of a general international condition,” she explained.
However, data limitations remain a challenge. “We have not been able to find good sources for the vehicle operational aspects and the infrastructure aspects,” she noted, highlighting the need for collaboration with stakeholders.
Africa’s uneven transition
Adding a continental perspective, head of the Department of Civil Engineering at UCT, Professor Mark Zuidgeest, presented findings from a study assessing NEV readiness across all 54 African countries.
The research evaluated four key pillars: policy and governance, finance, capacity building, and technology and innovation.
“If those four enabling factors are in place, you create the conditions for a successful rollout,” he said.
East Africa has emerged as a leader, with countries such as Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda showing balanced progress. In Kenya, lower electricity costs and the availability of electric two- and three-wheelers are helping to drive adoption.
“In Kenya, electricity is cheaper than petrol, and that changes the economics completely,” he noted.
“We need to be technology agnostic. It’s not just an electric vehicle conversation.”
South Africa, however, presents a mixed picture, with strengths in innovation and skills but weaker policy alignment and ongoing reliance on coal-based energy.
For Bridgette Setshedi, the manager of Climate Mitigation at the Presidential Climate Commission, the transition cannot be reduced to a simple shift in vehicle technology.
“If you’re transitioning to electric vehicles, your energy source also needs to transition to a renewable base,” she said. “If you’ve got a grey grid, it doesn’t really make the difference that you are looking for.”
Setshedi emphasised that decarbonising transport requires a dual shift – both in how people move and how energy is produced. This includes transforming South Africa’s electricity grid to support increased demand from EV charging while reducing emissions.
She also called for a broader, more flexible approach to technology. While electric vehicles are central to current strategies, alternative solutions such as green hydrogen and sustainable fuels – particularly for aviation and maritime sectors – must remain part of the conversation.
“We need to be technology agnostic,” she said. “It’s not just an electric vehicle conversation.”
A question of justice
Beyond technology, Setshedi highlighted the importance of a “just transition” – one that prioritises the needs of ordinary South Africans, particularly low-income households.
Transport costs remain a major burden, with many households spending up to half their income on commuting. Long travel times, often involving multiple minibus taxi trips, further compound the challenge.
“How do we ensure that someone doesn’t wake up at four in the morning just to get to work at eight?” she asked.
For Setshedi, the answer lies in rethinking the transport system as a whole. This includes improving spatial planning, integrating public transport, and working closely with the taxi industry, which plays a critical role in last-mile connectivity.
“It’s not just about shifting technology,” she said. “It’s about how transport connects people to opportunities, and how it improves their daily lives.”
Back in the Western Cape, UCT researchers are also examining the practicalities of NEV adoption, including where charging infrastructure should be located and whether the electricity grid can handle increased demand.
“We need to understand demand in detail,” Vanderschuren said. “Otherwise, we risk building infrastructure in the wrong places.”
“We need behavioural change as much as technological change.”
Electric bicycles, scooters and other forms of micro-mobility are emerging as viable alternatives, particularly for short-distance travel. Within the department, researchers have begun testing these technologies firsthand.
“We’ve purchased electric bicycles and scooters to understand how they perform in our environment,” Vanderschuren said. “For example, an electric scooter can take you up steep hills with ease – something that would be difficult on a conventional bicycle.”
However, uptake remains limited. High costs, limited availability and safety concerns continue to deter widespread adoption. South Africa’s road safety record, combined with a lack of dedicated cycling infrastructure, makes micro-mobility a risky option for many.
“There is still very little respect for cyclists on our roads,” she noted. “We need behavioural change as much as technological change.”
To address this, the team is also studying how people interact with NEVs, using simulation tools to better understand behavioural responses to quieter, unfamiliar vehicles.
One of the biggest obstacles remains affordability. Until recently, electric vehicles in South Africa were priced well beyond the reach of most consumers. But that is beginning to change.
“Only in the last six months have we seen vehicles entering the market at around R340 000,” Vanderschuren said. “That starts to open up access to a larger group of people.”
Even so, significant gaps remain compared to global markets, where subsidies and incentives have accelerated adoption.
What comes next?
The CfTS team is now finalising its modelling and plans to share its findings with policy makers and industry stakeholders later this year.
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