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South Africa’s population growth rate is estimated to have remained flat at 1.2% to 63.52-million in the year to June, with the economic hub of Gauteng accounting for 16.3-million, or 25.7%, the largest share among all nine provinces.
The data published in Stats SA’s latest mid-year population estimates on Thursday shows that the growth rate in 2025 was 1.23%, to 63.1-million.
The population grew at an average annual rate of 1.3% from 42.9-million in 2002.
After Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal has the second largest population at 12.28-million, accounting for 19.3%, while the Northern Cape has the smallest at 1.38-million, representing 2.2%.
“Migration is an important and inevitable demographic process, as it shapes the age structure and distribution of not only the country as a whole, but also the provincial populations,” Stats SA said, noting that in May and June, several African countries repatriated their citizens — many of them undocumented — while the government deported others.
This came as South Africa saw a flare-up of anti-immigrant sentiment partly driven by perception among some citizens that undocumented foreign nationals are a strain on local resources and are taking away scant jobs.
In 2021–26, Gauteng and Western Cape are estimated to have experienced the largest inflows of migrants, at about 1,420,447 and 500,093, respectively, Stats SA said.
About 25.6% of the population, or 16.25-million, is aged younger than 15 years while about 10.7%, or 6.79-million, is 60 years or older, the latest estimates show.
The provinces reflecting the highest percentage of children younger than 15 within their population structures are Limpopo at 31% and the Eastern Cape with 29.6%.
“The proportion of elderly persons aged 60 years and older in South Africa is increasing over time and as such, policies and programmes to care for the needs of this growing population should be prioritised,” Stats SA said.
The report says while women are having fewer children than in previous generations, there are still many women of childbearing age. Combined with improving female life expectancy, this means that the country continues to record enough births to support population growth.
According to the latest estimates, the overall HIV prevalence rate is about 12.3% among the South African population, with the total number of people living with HIV about 7.8-million in 2026. An estimated 17% of adults aged 15–49 years is HIV positive.
The methodology regarding calculating South Africa’s population was at the centre of controversy last December after Fibretime, a private fibre-network operator, questioned the official baseline, saying its own data and new remote sensing techniques suggest the number could be as high as 95-million.
The company said it used its operational sample — more than 250,000 homes connected and planning data for more than 2-million — with government sources to arrive at the estimate.
Stats SA rejected the claim, arguing that while innovative technologies such as aerial imaging or AI-based extrapolations “may offer supplementary insights, they cannot replace transparent, independently replicable scientific methods required for the production of official estimates”.
Business Day
Stella Mapenzauswa
www.timeslive.co.za
