According to the Clur Shopping Centre Index, Gauteng shopping centres and super-regional malls performed better in the first quarter of 2026 as growth migrated across retail property forms and the three major provinces.
Along with the growth swing across formats and the provinces, the first quarter saw ongoing retail property sector resilience, says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International, which produces the index.
Covering over 5.4 million square metres of space across listed and unlisted property funds in South Africa and Namibia, the index is derived from the Clur Collective, a South African early-warning performance, strategy, analysis and benchmarking platform built exclusively for shopping centres, to optimise returns.
“Sector resilience in the first quarter was supported by ongoing trading density and base rental growth,” says Clur. “Continued controlled market risk was indicated by a persistently stable base rent to sales ratio.
“This came as consumers showed a desire for an authentic heartbeat, underpinned by a strong need for empathy, value and honesty in customer relationships and management within the continuing Belief Economy context.
The need for these elements is expected to intensify in ongoing tumultuous times highlighted by the Iran war, evolving energy crisis, rising living costs and overall global geopolitical tensions.”
Clur says the growth shifts across formats and provinces were significant swings and underline the need for a diversified approach in strategy.
The Q1 ‘26 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at an annualised trading density of R43,340/sqm, and y/y% growth of 5.2%, outperforming Mar ‘26’s CPI by 2.1%.
“Marking a clear trend shift, the highest y/y% growth was shown by super-regional centres at 5.6%. February 2026 marked the first time since November 2024 that these centres have outperformed the growth rate of community and smaller centres.
“Regional centres followed at 5.4%, having seen an ongoing marked growth improvement since April 2025 and drastically improving their placement in the ranks since their low of 2.1% in September 2024.
Community and smaller centres came in at 4.9% y/y growth, having contracted by -0.5% against December 2025. Super-regional centres showed the highest growth expansion against December 2025 of 0.7%, followed by small regional centres at 0.2%.”
Actual trading density volumes continued to be driven by the combination of very large and very small centres. Top performance came from super-regionals at R53,225 /sqm, with community and smaller centres at a highly competitive R49,131 /sqm.
The shift in the trading density growth story across the three key provinces saw Gauteng taking the top spot from the Western Cape, performing at 5.6% y/y growth. The Western Cape was at 5.2% and KwaZulu-Natal at 4.4% y/y growth. Provincial trading density volumes saw the continuation of Western Cape dominance, at R50,262 /sqm. KwaZulu-Natal followed at R45,278/sqm and Gauteng delivered R41,842 /sqm.
Clur says the rental position continued to hold steady. The Q1 ‘26 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at a base rent to sales level of 6.6%, held since mid-2024, when the market moved into a state of balance, after the Covid-induced volatility.
All centre types and key provinces saw inflation-beating rental y/y growth in March 2026. The Q1 ’26 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at a base rent/ sqm level of R246.21. This represented y/y% growth of 5.5%, outperforming March 2026 CPI by 2.4%.
Super-regional centres showed the highest base rental levels of R333.88/ sqm, with top y/y% growth of 5.9%, exceeding March 2026 CPI by 2.8%. Regionals came in at R239.87, growing by 4.9% y/y and outperforming CPI by 1.8%. Small regional centres saw the second-highest y/y% growth level in base rent/ sqm at 5.7%, beating March 2026 CPI by 2.6%, and achieving R195.21/ sqm.
Provincially, top base rent/ sqm growth came from KwaZulu-Natal, at 7.1%, off R257.01/sqm, out-performing CPI by 4.0%. The highest base rent/ sqm of R269.76 was in the Western Cape with 5.1% y/y growth. Gauteng was at R245.72/sqm and 5.4% y/y growth.
Reviewing consumer positioning, Clur says authenticity, based on honesty, empathy and value, is at the crux of the current consumer headspace, as the belief economy continues to entrench.
“Ongoing hard times, further exacerbated by the Iran war and associated energy and living cost increases, are central to this consumer position, within the broader realm of global geopolitical tensions. An emphasis on these elements is expected to deepen significantly over time.
“As consumers seek a more heartfelt approach, they continue to fight the fake through pursuing raw honesty in all interactions, be they business or personal. The desire for empathy and value has been driven by the need for softness and care in seemingly relentless tough times. Basic respect and dignity are critical elements of this, extending in context beyond people and communities, including the planet, animals and technology.
“This authentic heartbeat concept reflects a critical new strategic sensitivity and connection point that brands need to embrace to drive optimal consumer engagement, loyalty and hard-earned spend.”
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