Gauteng shopping centres and super-regional malls outperformed in Q1 2026 as growth shifted across retail property formats and the three key provinces according to the Clur Shopping Centre Index.
Along with the growth swing across formats and the provinces, Q1 2026 saw ongoing retail property sector resilience says Belinda Clur, MD of Clur International, which produces the index.
Covering over 5.4 million square metres of space across listed and unlisted property funds in South Africa and Namibia, the index is derived from the Clur Collective – South Africa’s leading and early-warning performance, strategy, analysis, and benchmarking platform built exclusively for shopping centres to optimise returns.
“Sector resilience in the first quarter was supported by ongoing trading density and base rental growth,” says Clur. “Continued controlled market risk was indicated by a persistently stable base rent-to-sales ratio”.
“This came as consumers showed a desire for an authentic heartbeat, underpinned by a strong need for empathy, value and honesty in customer relationships and management, within the continuing Belief Economy context. The need for these elements is expected to intensify in ongoing tumultuous times highlighted by the Iran war, evolving energy crisis, rising living costs and overall global geopolitical tensions.”
Clur says the growth shifts across formats and provinces were significant swings and underline the need for a diversified approach in strategy.
The Q1 2026 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at an annualised trading density of R43 340 per m2 and year-on-year percentage growth of 5.2%, outperforming March 2026’s CPI by 2.1%.
“Marking a clear trend shift, the highest year-on-year percentage growth was shown by super-regional centres at 5.6%. February 2026 marked the first time since November 2024 that these centres have outperformed the growth rate of community and smaller centres.”
“Regional centres followed at 5.4%, having seen an ongoing marked growth improvement since April 2025 and drastically improving their placement in the ranks since their low of 2.1% in September 2024. Community and smaller centres came in at 4.9% year-on-year growth, having contracted by -0.5% against December 2025. Super-regional centres showed the highest growth expansion against December 2025 of 0.7%, followed by small regional centres at 0.2%.”
Actual trading density volumes continued to be driven by the combination of very large and very small centres. Top performance came from super-regionals at R53 225 per m2 with community and smaller centres at a highly competitive R49 131 per m2.
The shift in the trading density growth story across the three key provinces saw Gauteng taking the top spot from the Western Cape, performing at 5.6% year-on-year growth. The Western Cape was at 5.2% and KwaZulu-Natal at 4.4% year-on-year growth. Provincial trading density volumes saw the continuation of Western Cape dominance at R50 262 per m2. KwaZulu-Natal followed at R45 278 per m2 and Gauteng delivered R41 842 per m2.
Clur says the rental position continued to hold steady. The Q1 2026 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at a base rent-to-sales level of 6.6%, held since mid-2024, when the market moved into a state of balance, after the Covid-induced volatility.
All centre types and key provinces saw inflation-beating rental year-on-year growth in March 2026. The Q1 2026 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at a base rent per m2 level of R246.21. This represented year-on-year percentage growth of 5.5%, outperforming March 2026 CPI by 2.4%.
Super-regional centres showed the highest base rental levels of R333.88 per m2 with top year-on-year percentage growth of 5.9%, exceeding March 2026 CPI by 2.8%. Regionals came in at R239.87, growing by 4.9% year-on-year and outperforming CPI by 1.8%. Small regional centres saw the second highest year-on-year percentage growth level in base rent per m2 at 5.7%, beating March 2026 CPI by 2.6%, and achieving R195.21 per m2.
Provincially, top base rent per m2 growth came from KwaZulu-Natal at 7.1%, off R257.01 per m2, outperforming CPI by 4%. Highest base rent per m2 of R269.76 was in the Western Cape with 5.1% year-on-year growth. Gauteng was at R245.72 per m2 and 5.4% year-on-year growth.
Reviewing consumer positioning, Belinda Clur says authenticity, based on honesty, empathy and value is at the crux of the current consumer headspace, as the Belief Economy continues to entrench.
“Ongoing hard times, further exacerbated by the Iran war and associated energy and living cost increases are central to this consumer position, within the broader realm of global geopolitical tensions. An emphasis on these elements is expected to deepen significantly over time.”
“As consumers seek a more heart-felt approach, they continue to fight the fake through pursuing raw honesty in all interactions, be they business or personal. The desire for empathy and value has been driven by the need for softness and care in seemingly relentless tough times. Basic respect and dignity are critical elements of this, extending in context beyond people and communities, including the planet, animals and technology.”
“This authentic heartbeat concept reflects a critical new strategic sensitivity and connection point which brands need to embrace to drive optimal consumer engagement, loyalty and hard-earned spend,” she concludes.
by PropertyWheel_Gby PropertyWheel_G
propertywheel.co.za
