In these times of conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape.
The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and the majority of our barley, canola and oats. Planting of these crops begins at the end of this month.
Some farmers likely bought their fertiliser before the start of this war and benefited from better prices. But some may not have bought it then and will have to start planting at these higher fertiliser prices.
As I have said before, fertiliser accounts for 35% of South African grain farmers’ input costs, and fuel accounts for about 13%, meaning roughly half of the input cost component is exposed to the challenges posed by the ongoing war in the Middle East.
It is unclear how many farmers also managed to secure fuel before the recent hikes. But the core point is that South Africa is starting the 2026-27 winter crop season at a challenging time.
Things would have been better if the previous winter crop season in 2025-26 had been excellent. But it was not. Farmers across the Western Cape had to replant their crops twice or more. There was a snail infestation that attacked the seedlings.
Spraying and replanting meant farmers incurred even higher input costs than in normal seasons. What made things worse is that these commodities are traded on the global market, where their prices are determined.
Farmers don’t have the market power to pass on costs directly to consumers. Therefore, they were strained from the previous season. We are now starting the 2026-27 season from that back foot.
We will know how much area they intend to plant at the end of this month when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the farmers’ intentions-to-plant data.
As bleak as these views are, from a consumer perspective, there should be no cause for concern in the near term.
The world is awash with wheat, keeping prices under pressure. But the downside for farmers is that it weighs on their profitability, in a season when input costs are already higher due to the war.
For example, the International Grains Council forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 842 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year. This is due to ample harvests in the EU, Russia, the U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, among others.
It is partly these ample global supplies and lower global wheat prices that have led to calls to increase the domestic wheat import tariff.
The wheat import tariff exists to provide some level of protection for domestic wheat producers while ensuring that consumer welfare is not sacrificed in the process. The key is to find some level of balance. At this time, when farmers are under pressure, this is a matter we will be thinking more about at the policy level.
Ultimately, we are entering a stressful season for farmers, but consumers are getting a breather from ample global wheat supplies.
Wandile Sihlobo
wandile.substack.com
