The battle for control of the ANC in the Eastern Capepitting provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane against secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobisignals a fresh factional war, one that threatens to deepen the party’s long slide into self-destruction after two decades of corrosive infighting.
But this clash is less about the present than the future. It is not simply Mabuyane versus Ngcukayitobi, but a struggle over generational transition as young leaders clamber to replace the old guard.
A Destructive Pattern
The power battles, said observers, risk repeating the destructive patterns of the past 20 years, where factional wars since Polokwaneor just beforehave devoured the party from within.
The rupture between two former allies in the province now mirrors the broader state of affairs across the country, where power struggles dominate preparations for elective provincial conferences.
The National Stakes
The bull’s eye is to be the successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa and his deputy. This implies a move is underway to prevent Paul Mashatile from becoming next president.
Party insiders say the stakes in the Eastern Capeand to a lesser extent Limpopoare far higher than in other provinces, the cause of heightened tension and manipulation of processes.
The objective: tilt outcomes toward favoured candidates who can later repay the support in the run-up to the ANC’s 2027 national conference.
The Kingmaker
Any leader with ambitions of becoming ANC president must secure backing from the Eastern Cape, followed closely by Limpopo.
Both provinces have become flashpoints, with frequent allegations of rigging of pre-conference preparations and a string of court challenges from sidelined members citing unresolved internal disputes.
“Sidelining branches is deliberate. Favoured branches are kept informed, while others are excluded. The Eastern Cape is targeted because of its numbers,” one senior ANC member said anonymously.
Mabuyane’s Third Term
Mabuyane contesting for a third term illustrates the high stakes.
“While the ANC constitution does not prohibit a third term, it is frowned upon. Mabuyane himself once opposed the idea of a third term,” the insider said.
He claimed Mabuyane is contesting Ngcukayitobi because he has been promised national elevation if he delivers the province’s support to a particular leadership faction.
“Oscar is expected to do what Cat (DD Mabuza) did at Nasrec in 2017to bring the Eastern Cape numbers and get his reward.”
Mbalula vs Mashatile
Reports suggest secretary-general Fikile Mbalula intends to challenge Mashatile at next year’s national elective conference.
Within this dynamic, Mabuyane is seen as the trusted figure to marshal provincial support, while Ngcukayitobi risks being sacrificed in the process.
Analyst’s View
Political analyst Oscar van Heerden said it was clear Mbalula had presidential ambitions and wanted provincial and regional executives he favoured to win the elective conferences so they could support his candidature at the next ANC national conference.
He said after the MK party won huge support in KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape became the largest province followed by Limpopo.
“Whoever wins the two provinces is likely to become the next president, and that is why Luthuli House wants their support.”
The Bottom Line
The Eastern Cape is at the heart of the ANC’s next war. Mabuyane wants a third term. Ngcukayitobi stands in his way. Mbalula eyes the presidency. Mashatile is in the crosshairs.
The battle is about the future. And the party’s survival hangs in the balance.
Siraaj Phillips
www.joburgetc.com