The worrying drought in parts of the Eastern, Western and Northern Cape provinces of South Africa

The weather this year has been quite strange. Yes, we are experiencing a La Niña weather phenomenon, and have received above-normal rainfall in several regions of South Africa. The rains have been destructive in parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga.

But this year, the south-western regions of the Eastern Cape, which are part of the summer rainfall region, have received minimal rainfall since the start of the year. The entire Garden Route region is suffering.

On this basis, the government has declared drought a national disaster in the Cape provinces of South Africa (Eastern, Western, and Northern Cape). This declaration may include restrictions on water use in the affected areas.

The Western Cape, and to a limited extent parts of the Northern Cape, typically receive rain during the winter season, from around May. Thus, for them, particularly in the Western Cape, there remains hope of a recovery when the rainy season starts in about three months.

But in the Eastern Cape, we are in the summer rainfall season and should ideally be receiving rain now. The La Niña forecasts remain active and suggest a likelihood of above-normal rainfall through to the end of March.

But if the next two months are similar to what we have witnessed since the start of the summer, minimal rains, then we will have a significant challenge at hand going into the winter season.

All of these areas have agricultural activity, and prolonged dryness and high temperatures will start to weigh on it. For now, we see a greater impact on households in the Garden Route area.

Indeed, we are in a strange season. The La Niña rains have not been as widespread as we would have liked or as typical. The northern regions of the country are currently experiencing relatively high temperatures following heavy rainfall in the past few months.

Having considered all this, we remain optimistic that South Africa will have another excellent field crop and horticultural season. And yes, there remains room for a change in the outlook, as we are still early in the season.

The drought in the affected areas is sufficient to warrant concern, but has not had an impact that would necessitate a change in the agricultural outlook at the broad national level. We continue to monitor the weather developments closely.

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